CDC announced that up to 6 million swine flu cases in last few months! So now looking at the total of deaths worldwide 6051, we are looking at a mortality rate of .001%. Unfortunately the people that do get sick and who are at risk of serious illness are kids whereas the regular seasonal flu tends to effect babies and old people. (original article from CDC)
Tag Archives: epidemic
Flu in perspective
This is a GREAT graph that points out that there have been almost as many deaths from leprosy than flu!
Flu Update: The H1N1 (Swine Flu) is upon us!
I was stopped by a friend this morning who was concerned about the swine flu because he watched a 60 Minutes special last night about a teenager who died of the swine flu. The special went into detail about this poor teenager’s suffering and death (or so I was told–I didn’t see the special).
It is time to STOP the presses! The press/media is making people panic.
The facts:
- If you have fever, cough, body aches, and/or headache, you have the flu–it is widespread and epidemic
- 55,781 confirmed cases in U.S. & 1,081 deaths=mortality rate=1.9% NOW these stats are WAY off because those are the confirmed cases meaning cases that have been tested. There are probably double that many of cases that were tested and were false negatives (had the flu but test was wrong–30-50% of the time!). There are probably 10 times (at a minimum) more cases of the flu so probable cases of the flu in U.S. likely 500,000 or more so that means the mortality rate is far less than 1%.
- The problem–those who are dieing are young and healthy. Regular flu kills 30,000 people per year but they are very old or very young people. New pandemic flu strains attack the people in their prime. This is what drives the media to report on the deaths. We HAVE TO keep it in perspective.
- The vaccine scare–The H1N1 vaccine was created in the SAME process that the regular seasonal flu vaccine is (they would have mixed the seasonal flu vaccine and the H1N1 vaccine in the SAME shot if they had had the time). The vaccine is safe (as safe as the regular seasonal flu vaccine.
- tamiflu–NOT recommended unless person with the flu is immunocompromised otherwise tamiflu is NOT recommended (and it is NOT without it’s own side effects)
Flu Update: Return of the Swine Flu? What’s Ahead?
This is a thorough and concise summary of current situation: Return of the Swine Flu.
Flu Update
Health Experts Answer Swine Flu Questions
Prevention can help: If coughing, stay home and your family stay home. Coughing is the way this thing is spread. Hand washing helps because the droplets get on hands and we humans like to touch our mucus membranes–eyes, face, mouth etc…-so wash hands.
Good News: Mortality rate may be less than previously assumed?
- mortality rate in Mexico seems to have slowed: total is 152 & health officials have speculated that tens of thousands may have contracted it so this puts the mortality rate from 6-10% to 1% or less. Still too early to know. This article gives a more accurate picture of the shear number of cases in Mexico AND that it probably has been around for months–as early as February.
- U.S. confirmed is at 91 and 1 death which again means that there could be tenfold more unconfirmed cases again pointing to the mortality rate being at the worst 1% if 1/91 rate continues…
- The other concern has been that it is killing 25-45 year olds, but we still haven’t seen the numbers to know for sure. The first U.S. death was in a baby from Mexico, and unfortunately, the baby was in the age range that we typically see being most effected by the flu–under 2 and over 65.
- Here is a reassuring article putting potential ‘worst case scenerio’ stats together to point out that even if this were as bad as the ‘Spanish’ flu of 1918….
Pray and wait.
Flu Update
Question #1: Why is the mortality rate so high in Mexico?
Ans: There are many theories but no clear answers (yet), but the good news is that it appears that the death rate is slowing and the total cases are slowing as well in Mexico.
I would rank the theories in their most likely order:
1. not enough data and we will find that there were/are a lot more cases so the mortality rate is falsely elevated
2. virus changed minutely/just enough to make itself less lethal but more contagious
3. differences in population–worse health, bad air polution, delay in going to seek medical attention, genetic differences, more herd immunity in U.S.–many of us might think: “Mexico is so poor and their health system must be worse than ours.” One of my partners assurred me that Mexico Cities healthcare system is very clean and modern so that theory is probably not accurate.
4. Some other infection–some speculate that there is another supra-infection or co-infection that is making the death rate higher in Mexico.
Question #2: Are the deaths highest in the young–25-45 age range in Mexico?
Ans: Again, no data has been available, but some rumors and speculations that that is the case. If that is true, experts worry that may mean we are dealing with a flu strain like the 1918 strain which was very bad.
Some more links:
Global Map
Daily Update for Emergency Physicians
Incidental notes:
I worked 10 hours last night in the Emergency Department, and we were testing for the flu on EVERYBODY that had any symptoms at all suggestive of the flu–all were negative. I would think that we would start to see cases if this thing is going to spread like most epidemics do…More to follow….
Also one of my partners is interviewing today a researcher who has created a vaccine (tested only on animals but seems to work) that is non-typable. This means that this vaccine would work on ANY strain of the flu…WOW…for more details look for his interview on his website.
Is this a bad flu or not?
Answer: We don’t know yet. This is a concise video clip summarizing that point.
Flu: What are the true numbers?
Mexico: 86 confirmed deaths (only 20 of which have been confirmed to have the swine flu); 1400 confirmed cases
These numbers are concerning. I will make an educated guess that most of the 86 deaths are from the flu but there are 1,000’s of unconfirmed cases to go with the 1400 confirmed cases. For example, in New York approximately 100 kids came down with flu symptoms, but the health department only tested 8–all of which were positive for the swine flu. This means that there are a lot of people with this flu that are unconfirmed cases. I am hopeful that when the dust/stats settle, we will find that the Mexico numbers are more likely 80 dead out of 8000 (I hope or just wishful thinking)–which is a 1% mortality rate rather than the 6-8% mortality currently being reported there.
Now why are we not seeing any mortalities (yet)? Is it just too few cases? Or has the flu changed? Or is there some kind of herd immunity from exposure to prior flu vaccines etc.?
Any thoughts???