So the swine flu is continuing to spread. The concerns continue to be:
- The mortality rate
- The age of the victims.
The WHO has stated that the initial mortality numbers from Mexico were not correct so they have been dramatically adjusted. The mortality rate seems to be confirmed at 19 of 506 cases in Mexico or a rate of 3%, and if you use the suspected numbers the mortality rate is less than 2%. This still seems high to me, and I continue to suspect that the mortality rate is lower but we just don’t have all the data.
The age of the people contracting the disease seems to be young. In the U.S. the average age has been 17. I did read today that there were at least 4 deaths in Mexico over age 60, but the most accurate numbers are probably from the MMWR.
The Associated Press said yesterday:
“Epidemiologist Pablo Kuri, an adviser to Mexico’s health secretary, gave a brief survey of the 16 confirmed swine flu fatalities in that country to The Associated Press. They include four males and 12 females. Three children died — a 9-year-old girl, a 12-year-old girl and a 13-year-old boy. Four were older than 60, the oldest 68.
The other nine fatalities were between 21 and 39 — unusual ages for people to die of the flu, because they tend to have stronger immune systems.
People sickened in the U.S. range in age from 1 to 81, but most are younger than 20, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.”
Associated Press said today: “Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova said the virus that has killed 19 people in Mexico and sickened at least 506 apparently peaked here between April 23 and April 28. A drastic nationwide shutdown appears to have helped prevent the outbreak from becoming more serious, he said.
“The evolution of the epidemic is now in its declining phase,” Cordova declared.
He said officials would decide Monday whether to extend the shutdown or allow schools and businesses to reopen on Wednesday.
Pablo Kuri, an epidemiologist advising Cordova, told The Associated Press on Sunday that tests have confirmed a swine flu death in Mexico City on April 11, two days earlier than what had been believed to be the first death.
He also said there have been no deaths among health care workers treating swine flu patients in Mexico, an indication that the virus may not be as contagious or virulent as initially feared.”
We must continue to pray that the mortality numbers will be comparable to the seasonal flu (<1%) and that deaths will not be in the prime of life.